2023 Retrodictive NBA Draft Rankings
An evidence-based look toward the future of yesteryear's star-studded draft class
A year ago, I joined the fray again late in the draft cycle and came out with over 9000 words on Twitter of which I certainly remain extremely proud.
But a ton of new info has come to light for these guys, namely over 40k minutes played in the NBA and over 20k more in the G-League. Opinions are subject to change after 60k minutes played, so I wouldn’t crucify a hypothetical big board-crafter for making several sweeping changes.
Without further ado, my 2023 Rerank:
Tier 1 — Future MVP, Surefire First-Ballot HOF
1. Victor Wembanyama, Big
Age: 20.5
Key Stats per 100: 34 PTS, 17 REB, 5.7 BLK, 2.0 STL, 6.2 AST, 8.9 3PA
Key Basic Metrics: 32% USG, 53% 2P, 33% 3P, 80% FT, 22% AST, 16% TOV, 31% DRB, +5.2 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: +4.1 EPM (#24), +3.6 RAPM (#29), +4.9 DPM (#6), 6.32 STOP% (#1, and 3rd-best season since 2006!)
Wemby is the best young player to enter the league since at least Luka (2018) or Jokic (2015), and, because neither of those guys are super gifted on one side of the ball, you must travel back to 2003 to find a young player even remotely comparable.
Wemby is on the clear future MVP path at Age 20. He’s got a more defensive lean than LeBron ever did, and his career in retrospect may end up looking a little more like Duncan’s or Olajuwon’s because of it, but he’s got something of a head start on them, coming in over a year younger and making the All-Defensive First Team (they both made Second Team) + finishing higher in DPOY voting than both.
By at least one measure, that being DARKO (or DPM), Duncan spent seven consecutive seasons at its #1 spot year in and year out, and the three seasons prior plus the five seasons after that run was #2 or #3 every single year.
I do not believe that Duncan was given enough MVPs (2) in exchange for his 15 season run of absolute domination, and never in his 19 years did he fall below #17. Wemby may befall the same fate, though, because he is larger and more obviously built-different than anybody we’ve ever seen, he may be given the awards respect he deserves.
Tier 2 — Future Top 25 Player Locks, Ceiling for More
2. Cam Whitmore, Wing (+1 from 2023)
Age: 20.0
Key Stats per 100: 32 PTS, 10 REB, 1.8 AST, 2.5 TOV, 12.1 3PA
Key Basic Metrics: 27% USG, 54% 2P, 36% 3P, 6% AST, 8% TOV, 5% OREB, 17% DREB, +0.1 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: -1.3 EPM, -0.55 RAPM, -0.7 DPM, .082 WS/48 (#126)
You don’t often see guys win the Summer League MVP the week after they turn 19 and then hold it together in the NBA to the tune of being mostly a neutral player while scoring pretty efficiently in a high-usage role.
Whitmore utilizes his athleticism to find open space on the perimeter and is a great catch-and-shooter, as well as a menace in transition — these two modes of scoring are his most frequent, but he also shot 44% on FGAs between 4 and 22 feet. The scoring upside is the biggest sell by far, and improving his weak free-throw rate will be paramount to his improvement there.
Whitmore showed much of the same in his G-League minutes, scoring with dazzling efficiency on similarly high usage while maintaining a high steal rate and, most importantly, showing some passing upside for the first time!
If he can keep improving his passing to the point of being at least a solid connector—which I’d say is pretty bankable for any given 19-year old star wing prospect to pick up through osmosis over time—he will be an star wing in the league for a very long time on the Vince Carter to Shorter, Stouter Paul George to T-Rex Kawhi Leonard spectrum.
3. Amen Thompson, Wing (+17)
Age: 21.5
Key Stats per 100: 21 PTS, 14 REB, 5.7 AST, 3.1 TOV, 2.7 STL, 1.3 BLK
Key Basic Metrics: 19% USG, 17% AST, 15% TOV, 60% 2P, 14% 3P, 68% FT, 11% OREB, 20% DREB, +1.8 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: +1.5 EPM, +1.9 RAPM (#70), +1.5 DPM (#53), .149 WS/48 (#40), 3.92 STOP% (#10)
I didn’t take Amen super seriously as a prospect because I believed that, generally speaking, a 20-year old purposefully playing largely against players younger than them lacking in organization wasn’t intending to be taken that seriously as a prospect.
But I still ranked the Twins #20 and #21 because they seemed like very promising defensive bets (because of effort on film + stocks) who could probably pass a little bit, and Amen first because he could maybe initiate a little bit. They were getting beat by more serious teams when they played, like the Nikola Djurisic-led KK Mega Masket
Well, they are both much more functionally athletic than I anticipated, being pretty clearly the two best wing rebounders and defensive event-creators in the NBA the minute they stepped on the court. And despite being the unquestionably two worst three-point shooters in the NBA, Amen still proved an innate ability to score efficiently because he is able to get to the rim pretty easily and shoots 71% within 3 feet.
His handle can definitely stand to improve if he hopes to survive as a primary initiator, but being on a team with an initiating center and a possible initiator incoming in Reed Sheppard will certainly help in this regard.
I project him to be, at the very least, a twisted but probably better version of Marcus Smart that shoots both less and worse, but gets to the rim at a higher rate and scores more efficiently because of it; there really is no upper limit to how good this nuclear-athlete basketball savant could be, though — an alternate-reality version of Ja Morant, Russell Westbrook, Andre Iguodala. . . there’s no telling where Amen ends up.
4. Cason Wallace, Guard (-)
Age: 20.6
Key Stats per 100: 16 PTS, 5.3 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.3 TOV, 2.2 STL, 1.1 BLK, 6.6 3PA
Key Basic Metrics: 13% USG, 57% 2P, 42% 3P, 78% FT, +0.1 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: -1.3 EPM, +0.1 RAPM (#147), -0.1 DPM (#163), .115 WS/48 (#76), 2.9 STOP% (#64)
A lot of these players’ evals are very honestly going to start and end with “19/20-year olds are usually so bad,” and that’s true, so it is notable when a guard starts his first NBA season at 19 years old, turns 20 shortly thereafter, and is a pretty damn measurably net-neutral player in that season.
Yes, Cason’s usage and assist rates were extremely low. But he’s already a good guard defender (+0.7 dEPM, Top 70 STOP%) and he was an incredibly efficient scorer within his role at such a young age — 75% at the rim, 41% from 4-22 feet, 42% from 3 is unreal.
So often, stars begin their careers as high-efficiency role-players and fans imagine them to be stuck at that level, underrating the amount of improvement possible from Age 20 to 22 to 24 and so on — Cason is going to be a star guard in some form or another; I would imagine he ends up, just as I said a year ago, to end up somewhere on the Jrue Holiday to Derrick White to Kyle Lowry spectrum.
5. Brandin Podziemski, Guard (+3)
Age: 21.3
Key Stats per 100: 17 PTS, 10.5 REB, 6.7 AST, 2.2 TOV, 5.8 3PA
Key Basic Metrics: 15% USG, 50% 2P, 39% 3P, 6.6% OREB, 16.7% DREB, -0.1 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: +0.1 EPM, +2.85 RAPM (#44), -1.9 DPM, .100 WS/48 (#99), 2.82 STOP% (#71)
Another very low-usage solid role player at Age 20, Podziemski had a slightly better overall advanced-metrics output than Wallace, but was less efficient in every mode of scoring, looks a bit worse as a defender and, most easily for me to lean on, my priors a year ago had Wallace several spots higher.
But they’re effectively 4a and 4b in whichever order you’d best prefer to see them listed here — both are going to be stars in some form or another. ‘Podz’ is a little under a year older and measurably better as a passer right now — I’d put his outcomes in the same exact range, maybe something closer to Mike Conley, Darius Garland or Fred VanVleet than the efficiency superstars I compared to Cason.
6. Dereck Lively II, Big (+3)
Age: 20.4
Key Stats per 100: 18 PTS, 14 REB, 2.9 BLK, 1.3 STL, 2.2 AST, 1.9 TOV
Key Basic Metrics: 13% USG, 75% 2P, 51% FT, 11% OREB, 20% DREB, +0.5 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: +1.6 EPM, +3.6 RAPM (#26), +1.0 DPM (#74), .182 WS/48 (#17), 3.16 STOP% (#41)
Lively certainly benefited from playing in a super limited role with a Top 3 offensive engine in the NBA, but it was his Age 19 season and he put up the kind of advanced metrics you see above.
That is fucking insane.
He shot 83% at the rim.
That is also fucking insane.
He only falls here, below the above four guys whom he clearly outclassed this season in terms of on-court output, because he clearly has an exploitable weakness in his free-throw shooting that teams are sure to take advantage of starting next season. His monstrous 73% True Shooting may be a thing of the past if he starts getting hacked left and right.
However, Lively is an unquestionably elite defensive prospect who has a couple decades to figure out how to shoot free throws before his usefulness washes away. I anticipate an incredibly long, Tyson Chandler-like career for him, with obvious upside for more if he ever figures out how to do more on offense.
Tier 3 — The Rest of the Clear Star Upside, Likely at least Top 100 Players
7. Jarace Walker, Big (-5)
Age: 20.8
Key Stats per 100: 17 PTS, 8.7 REB, 5.6 AST, 2.4 TOV, 2.1 STL, 1.5 BLK, 7.6 3PA
Key Basic Metrics: 16% USG, 40% 3P, 14% AST, +0.2 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: -2.7 EPM, -0.4 RAPM, -2.1 DPM, .058 WS/48
Jarace only played 340 NBA minutes compared to 614 G-League minutes. He didn’t do much in his NBA sample besides prove that his shooting and passing abilities have continued seriously developing since his time at Houston.
The G-League sample proves much the same — 18% AST to 12% TOV, 40% from deep on very high per-minute volume, and a free-throw sample between both leagues good for an elite combined 83%.
He appears to be a weak rebounder, surprising for one of the best per-pound athletes in the entire league, but I’m willing to look past that.1 Jarace, despite a limited first year, remains one of the most intriguing players to project forward in the class, as this combination of size, athleticism, shooting, passing, and defensive projection is too rare to let slip any further than this.
8. Ausar Thompson, Wing (+13)
Age: 21.5
Key Stats per 100: 17 PTS, 12 REB, 3.6 AST, 2.6 TOV, 2.1 STL, 1.8 BLK, 3.4 3PA
Key Basic Metrics: 17% USG, 58% 2P, 19% 3P, 60% FT, 11% AST, 14% TOV, -2.2 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: +0.1 EPM, +1.7 RAPM (#76), -0.7 DPM, .053 WS/48
See: Thompson, Amen.
While Amen is a lock to be a Top 25 guy, his twin falls to this tier for his lack of on-ball creation. Ausar severely lacks the handle to be able to contribute in that way, and that difference reveals itself maybe best in 80% of Ausar’s shots being assisted versus just 53% of Amen’s.
Ausar will probably need a shot to ever contribute meaningfully on offense in the NBA. But he’s locked in as probably a Top 10 defender for the next decade-plus, and with his off-ball ability to score efficiently at the rim and from the short mid-range (52% on shots from 3 to 16 feet!). . . and the lingering potential for the addition of Fred Vinson to completely change the trajectory of his three-point shot. . . it’s impossible to say that Ausar’s potential is anything less than sky-high.
I am extraordinarily excited to see what becomes of these young Pistons wings.
9. Brandon Miller, Wing (-2)
Age: 21.6
Key Stats per 100: 26 PTS, 6.5 REB, 3.6 AST, 2.7 TOV, 10.2 3PA
Key Basic Metrics: 24% USG, 49% 2P, 37% 3P, 83% FT, 11.6% AST, 10% TOV, -2.6 BPM
Key Advanced Metrics: -1.5 EPM, -4.0 RAPM, -1.4 DPM, .015 WS/48
Miller was a bigger part of his team during his rookie season than anyone covered so far besides Wemby, and played by far more minutes than any other rookie, which means he has earned some slack when it comes to analyzing his efficiency and his catch-all metric performance.
But he was the oldest player in my Top 10 last year, and he remains the oldest player in my Retrodictive Top 10. So while he was a rookie taking on a lot of defensive attention by the mid-season, he also is the one we should be expecting to be the furthest along of all these guys.
And while I won’t come close to wiping out any potential for him to be a star, he certainly is no Top 25 lock. Future star wings don’t typically perform this badly in their Age 21 seasons, as he appears to be a sieve on the defensive end and a non-rim threat on offense2.
Miller can definitely thrive on NBA offenses for a long time as an excellent spot-up shooter and solid ball-mover; he has some mid-range creation upside too, as he shot 41% or better from each mid-range distance, and over 37% on threes, in his rookie season. This profile looks like a lock to be at least Bojan Bogdanovic levels of good, with some upside to match the peak of a guy like Danny Granger.
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