The 2024 Draft Board

My first and final stab at ranking the 2024 class, which, you may be shocked to learn, most analysts are getting incredibly wrong

The 2024 NBA Draft class has long been considered devoid of the usual high-end talent and star upside present in most drafts, and I would discern that assessment to be mostly wrong, and mostly rooted in this class’s very weird makeup up top.

There is obviously no Luka, Wembanyama, et al hiding in plain sight here, but there is plenty of weirdo factor with pretty massive upside in my opinion. I often cite Kevin Pelton and his Projected WARP in my writeups because 1) he has been posting it perennially since 2006 and 2) it has historically unearthed some serious gems, proving its respectability.

Off rip, going back seven years and gauging the average number of 3.0+ Projected WARP prospects per class, 2024’s four places it squarely above-average — two of those draft classes boasted just two, three classes had three, and two classes also possessed four players in this tier. Pelton himself has noted that 3+ WARP is often the natural tier break between star or star-adjacent prospects, and then the rest.

I do believe that the narrative surrounding this draft class naturally twisted itself into this position because of the aforementioned weirdo factor; two of the very clear top several guys are 7-3 or taller and don’t project to shoot, one of the group is a short-winged barely 6-3 guard, and most of the rest did not play college ball.

This first tier of guys definitely compete with the upper echelon of Tier 2 of 2023, slotting right in alongside that group made up of Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore, Cason Wallace and Brandon Miller.

Without much further ado, my once-annual big board:

Tier 1: Median Outcome Great Two-Way Starter, Clear Paths to Superstar Upside

Would happily draft Top-3 in any given draft, regardless of team context

1. Reed Sheppard, Guard, Kentucky